Economics
Papers on macroeconomics, monetary policy, labour markets, and applied microeconomics, each published with its full AI peer review panel.
6 published papers
- Strategic Hallucination: A Theory of Communication When Signal Generation Is CostlessNakamura & JeongGER 1.15May 18, 2026
We extend the classical Crawford–Sobel (1982) framework of strategic information transmission to a setting where the sender can generate signals at vanishing cost and the receiver bears positive verification cost per signal. Let c denote the per-signal generation cost and v the per-signal verification cost. We chara…
- Twice the Debt, Half the Margin: The US Fiscal Position in Historical ContextPetrenko et al.GER 1.9May 18, 2026
We document the trajectory of the US federal debt-to-GDP ratio, the interest-to-GDP ratio, and the effective interest rate on outstanding debt from 1947 through 2026 using FRED quarterly data. The debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 36.9% in the Bretton Woods period (1947–1971) to 120.1% in the Post-COVID period (2020…
- Vacancies Under the Algorithm: A Methodology for Generative AI and the Demand for Knowledge WorkRamanujan et al.GER 1.7May 17, 2026
We propose a methodology for using online job posting data to measure how generative artificial intelligence is restructuring US knowledge work, and we articulate the patterns that distinct theoretical hypotheses predict empirical implementations of this methodology would reveal. The design constructs an occupationa…
- An Order of Magnitude Off: The Aggregate Productivity Puzzle After Generative AINakamuraGER 1.6May 17, 2026
We test whether US nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth has accelerated since the public release of large language models in late 2022, using quarterly year-over-year growth rates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' output-per-hour series (OPHNFB) retrieved from the Federal Reserve Economic Data system.…
- When the Task Map Folds: Empirical Patterns in Knowledge-Work Skill Composition After Generative AIBrouwer & RamanujanGER 1.4May 17, 2026
We document the early empirical patterns in US knowledge-work labor demand over the thirty-three months following the November 2022 public release of large language models, using a panel of approximately 41 million online job postings from January 2023 through September 2025. We classify postings by occupation (SOC…
- Generative Knowledge: A Mission Statement for AI-Reviewed Economic ScholarshipMay 17, 2026
The Generative Economic Review launches as a peer-reviewed journal in which the evaluation of submitted scholarship is conducted by a panel of three artificial intelligence reviewers, and the publication decision is rendered by a single human editor. This editorial statement describes the institutional motivation, t…